In a recent study published in the American Journal of Law and Equality, researchers sought to answer a controversial question: How well does bar exam performance predict the effectiveness of newly minted lawyers? To explore this, they examined data from the State Bar of Nevada—combining bar results, surveys of early-career lawyers, and independent evaluations by supervisors, peers, and judges.
The findings were surprising: neither the Multistate Bar Examination (MBE) nor the essay components of the Nevada Bar showed a strong relationship with lawyering effectiveness. In other words, the famously grueling bar exam, long considered the gold standard for legal competence, had little to do with how well these lawyers performed in real cases and client interactions.
Why Law Differs From Tech and Finance
If you compare the law to computing or finance, there are immediately noticeable differences:
- Legal outcomes often hinge on human factors —the courtroom dynamic, negotiations, or even political connections.
- In contrast, software architecture is judged by tangible, measurable metrics (system performance, code quality, user satisfaction).
- ROI, risk assessments, and clear-cut performance metrics in capital markets may measure finance strategy.
In the legal realm, a brilliant lawyer can lose a case because the opposing counsel happens to have better connections or a more favorable judge. The “connections” factor may still exist in software or finance but is arguably less decisive than in law.
The Certification Question: AWS, Azure, and Beyond
While bar exams are typically a mandatory gateway into legal practice, certifications in tech (e.g., AWS Certified Solutions Architect, Microsoft Azure Certifications) or finance (CFA, FRM, etc.) are often taken voluntarily. They serve as benchmarks of knowledge in a fast-evolving field. But just like the bar exam, these tests mainly assess theoretical knowledge:
- They cover the “current state of the art,” ensuring you’re aware of the latest tools and methodologies.
- They test factual recall, which is information that can be quickly found if you know what you’re looking for.
The challenge, however, is that the truly transformative solutions in tech or finance demand creative innovation—something no multiple-choice quiz can fully capture. You must know what’s possible and develop innovative solutions that no exam blueprint would have predicted.
So, What Predicts Success?
Based on my own experience across various projects and collaborations, five qualities seem to predict real-world success, regardless of whether you’re a lawyer, software architect, or finance strategist:
- Level of Care — How deeply do you care about your project or firm? Enthusiasm and dedication often lead to going the extra mile, whether researching case law more thoroughly, debugging code late into the night, or iterating multiple financial models to find the best investment strategy.
- Courage to Experiment — Being willing to try new approaches, fail fast, and pivot quickly is critical in a constantly changing environment. Lawyers who test fresh legal arguments, developers who adopt new programming paradigms, and finance professionals who explore unconventional market strategies often discover breakthroughs.
- Earning Trust — Whether by delivering on promises, communicating openly, or consistently supporting teammates, trust is a currency that can accelerate your career. When people trust your competence and reliability, you gain the freedom to take on more significant challenges.
- Competence as “Getting Things Done” — Today, competence isn’t just about memorizing facts; it’s about effectively leveraging all available resources—tapping into your network, using AI tools like LLMs, and consulting specialized references. The best professionals are resourceful, adaptable, and driven to pursue their goals.
- Creativity & Original Problem-Solving—The ability to devise highly original solutions often comes from reading widely, tackling diverse problems, and even gaining broader perspectives through travel. These varied experiences expand your thinking and spark innovative ideas that can set you apart.
What This Means for Hiring and Career Paths
- Credentials Are Not the Whole Story
Like the bar exam doesn’t guarantee a superb lawyer, a stack of cloud certifications doesn’t guarantee an ingenious software architect or finance guru. They can open doors, but the actual proof of ability comes when an individual faces complex, unpredictable problems. - Look for a Growth Mindset and Drive
If you’re recruiting, don’t just scan for top exam scores or a shiny certification list—probe for examples of initiative, original thinking, and resilience under pressure. - Focus on Team and Organizational Fit
Values like curiosity, empathy, and teamwork often matter more than tests. A candidate who shows genuine passion and cooperates well can amplify the team’s effectiveness.
Closing Thoughts
The Nevada Bar study underscores a broader truth: measuring theoretical knowledge only scratches the surface of professional capability. While bar exams, AWS certifications, and CFA credentials can establish a foundational baseline, they rarely guarantee creative problem-solving or top-tier performance in the real world.
Whether you’re launching a legal career, designing a new software architecture, or devising a hedge fund strategy, the best way forward usually involves caring passionately about your work, daring to experiment, earning the trust of others, and relentlessly executing your ideas. Those attributes, more than a test score or a certificate, often decide who soars—and who stalls.
